Chapter Summary and Conclusion

In this chapter, the researcher presented the research design and methodological framework that provided the foundation for the research study. She opened the chapter by explaining the theoretical and philosophical considerations that led her to select a mixed-methodology design, and articulated the specific objectives she intended to achieve by proposing the model that she adopted for the study. The rationale for the design and methodology were presented, and were followed by a detailed description of how the study was set up and how it was conducted. For ease of reading, the researcher presented each section with quantitative and qualitative subheadings; in this way, the researcher hoped to provide a replicable research model that can be adopted as a template by future students and investigators, including those who demonstrate a research interest in markets and industries other than clothing.
In Chapter Four, the researcher will present the quantitative and qualitative data; the former are displayed in tabular format, and are accompanied by an interpretive narrative, while the latter are presented in narrative format only. Chapter Four also includes the analysis of both sets of data, with a specific focus on how a triangular analytic approach can yield a richer and more complete set of data, as well as a fuller understanding of what those data signify.

Chapter Four
Data Analysis and Presentation

Introduction
The purpose of the present chapter is to present the quantitative and qualitative data to the reader, to provide a cogent and comprehensive analysis of those data, and to conclude, using persuasive and tangible evidence generated by the research study, by answering the two research questions that guided the study:
1) What is the actual economic impact of Chinese clothing imports on the U.S. economy?
2) Based on the data collected in response to research question one, what can the researcher reasonably forecast as the trajectory of the relationship between Chinese-U.S. clothing import/exports over the course of the next five years?
The quantitative and qualitative data will be presented discretely and will then be analyzed and discussed in relationship to one another.

Quantitative Data: Results
The quantitative data are organized into three broad categories and are presented in tabular format below.
Table One: Import-Export Ratios for Clothing: China and the United States, 2004-2005
China Imports US Imports China Exports US Exports
2004 $1542 million $75.7 billion $61,856 million $5,059 million
2005 $1629 million $80.1 billion $74,163 million $4,998 million
(Adapted from Martin, 2007; World Trade Organization, 2007)

What one can infer from the data included in Table One, which reflect only the most recent statistics available for 2004 and 2005, is that China’s clothing exports have grown steadily and significantly; the growth rate between 2004 and 2005 was an impressive 74.6%. During that same period, the United States experienced a decline in clothing exports, representing a change of -0.4%. While the decline may seem statistically negligible, it is clearly not when it is considered alongside other variables. First, the fact that U.S. imports of clothing increased by more than half a billion dollars in a single year is in itself significant. Second, if one looks further back in the historical record, a trend reflecting a steady increase in clothing imports on the part of the United States becomes evident; Table Two provides evidence of this trend.

Table Two: Clothing Imports: United States, 1995, 1998, 1999
Imports
In billions
1995 $46.3
1998 $63.2
1999 $66.5
(Adapted from Martin, 2007)
Similarly, one can better understand the significance of this trend for the United States by comparing China’s own import-export ratios for the years 1994, 1995, and 1999, which are presented on the following page in Table Three.

Table Three: Import-Export Ratios for Clothing: China, 1994, 1995, 1999
Imports
In $100 millions Export
In $100 millions
1994 $158.2 $358.8
1995 $143.9 $404.6
1999 $139.2 $412.7
(Adapted from Bhalla & Qiu, 2002)
Clearly, China has been able to put a strategy in place whereby it is steadily reducing its imports of finished, manufactured products each year, while simultaneously increasing its exports substantially.
It is important to understand the ripple effects that the trends which these kinds of statistics reflect can have on the national economy at large. As the United States decreases its clothing exports and increases its clothing imports, this means that a segment of the employment sector in the country begins to vanish. Recent changes regarding jobs in the clothing industry are presented in Table Four.
Table Four: US Clothing Industry Job Demographics: Job Loss
Total Number of Clothing Industry Jobs
2004 450,000
2005 400,000
(Adapted from Martin, 2007)

Again, when one examines a time-span of a single year, the decline may seem minimal. Yet, when we look back to 1990, one sees just how dramatic the job loss trend is in the U.S. apparel industry. From a high of approximately 700,000 jobs in 1990, the number of jobs in the industry has declined steadily each year since (Martin, 2007). Thus, the trend suggested in Table Four is not an anomaly; rather, it is reflective of an ongoing phenomenon that should be of interest and concern to stakeholders in the U.S. apparel industry.

Finally, the third economic indicator examined in addition to import-export ratios and job demographics is U.S. consumer spending on clothing. Examining the same time period, January 2004-December 2005, the researcher identifies an interesting trend that may lead to a contentious observation. As the reader will see based on the data compiled in Table Five, consumer spending habits with respect to clothing purchases remained entirely stable during the review period. In fact, the U.S. Census Bureau, which is the source of the data, indicated that there was no statistically significant change, either positive or negative, in terms of consumer buying patterns.
Thus, one can conclude that while Chinese clothing imports are having dramatic impacts on some aspects of the U.S. economy, namely trade balances and employment opportunities, they do not seem to be having any appreciable or significant effect on consumer spending.
Table Five: U.S. Consumer Spending on Clothing: 2004-2005 (in millions)

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
2004 $15,953 $16,277 $16,497 $16,265 $16,736 $16,622 $16,805 $16, 649 $16, 712 $16, 693 $17,181 $17, 179
2005 $16, 238 $16, 462 $16, 178 $16,722 $16, 599 $16, 780 $16, 726 $16, 650 $16, 673 $17, 212 $17,213 $17, 172
(Based on monthly reports published by the U.S. Census Bureau, available online at http://www.economicindicators.gov/
Qualitative Data: Results
The researcher and the multiple raters who assisted in the content analysis and coding of the focus group data identified several thematic categories that reflected the participants’ attitudes, beliefs, and concerns regarding the U.S. apparel industry. The thematic categories are listed below, with a short narrative reflection accompanying each.

Theme One: The “Glory Days” of U.S. Clothing Manufacturing Are Gone
Although the focus group participants represented a variety of stakeholder groups related to the U.S. apparel industry, all expressed concern about the U.S. clothing manufacturing industry disappearing. One participant referred to the history of clothing manufacturing in the United States by saying “The glory days are gone,” and this idea was picked up and elaborated on by others in the group. Far from representing simple group think, though, many of the participants were able to cite specific evidence that supported their claim that the glory days are over. Job loss, discussed by participants both anecdotally and empirically, was a major concern, as was the decline in foreign trade relationships, which was highlighted by manufacturing interests. What the end of the glory days signified for participants was the disappearance of an industry that has had a significant place in American manufacturing and economic history.

Theme Two: How Do We Talk About Import-Export Ratios?
Industry insiders mentioned an important consideration that the researcher had not considered because she had not been aware of it: import-export ratios for clothing do not tend to reflect import-export ratios for textile products. This was an important confounding variable that was introduced to the study and which complicates interpretation on the part of the researcher. For instance, if textile products are not included in import-export ratios, how might the ratios be giving a false impression of the actual economic relationship between the United States and China and the impact that finished textile products—i.e., clothing—imported from China has on the U.S. economy? After all, focus group participants pointed out, although the United States is importing more Chinese clothing than ever, it continues to export a significant amount of raw textile and fiber materials to China for the manufacture of those products. Does the export of textile products help balance the import-export ratio? This is a question that the researcher cannot answer because the quantitative data that were collected did not take textile exports and imports into account.

Theme Three: Consumer Interest
Generally speaking, the focus group members believed that the American consumers’ interest in clothing had not declined. On the contrary, the focus group participants expressed their belief that clothing sales were up significantly, largely, they thought, due to low-price, big-box retailers such as Wal-Mart, K-Mart, and Target. Clearly, their perceptions and opinions on this subject did not match the reality portrayed by statistical data, but their impressions are important, because their confidence in the American consumers’ willingness to spend discretionary income on clothing is a positive economic indicator. If the industry believes that consumers are willing to spend on the product, it will continue to market to the consumer audience and, in doing so, will be likely to boost consumer confidence and investment above and beyond actual spending patterns. In this way, the losses experienced in other sectors of the industry may be recuperated or compensated for, at least partially.

Analysis of the Data: Discussion
There is no single, unqualified answer that can be given in response to research question one, which was “What is the actual economic impact of Chinese clothing imports on the U.S. economy?” Because any country’s economy reacts to a number of different variables and conditions, the fluctuations observed in one area of the economy may be compensated for or mitigated by changes in another sector or industry. Based on the quantitative data presented in this chapter, the researcher contends that the steady, indeed, dramatic, increase in Chinese clothing export rates has had an appreciable impact on the U.S. clothing industry and on the economy with respect to jobs in this country. The general trend of job loss in the industry from 1990 to the present suggests as much, and the fact that this decline is ongoing despite the introduction of international trade agreements that have, at least in part, intended to stem some of the negative effects of an import-export trade imbalance for the U.S. is a serious concern. In the research literature from the fields of social science and economics, unemployment has been identified as a causative factor in a number of deleterious social phenomena, including non-violent crime (Raphael & Winter-Ebmer, 2001) and general consumer confidence (Acemoglu & Scott, 1994).

The conclusions that can be reached with respect to what the import-export data and consumer purchase patterns tell us about the impact of Chinese clothing imports on the U.S. economy, however, are more complicated. As mentioned already, the import-export data and the interpretations that can be made about them may be confounded by a related construct, which is import-export data for textile goods. Also, because consumer confidence appears to have remained steady in the period that was studied, reflected in actual month-to-month clothing purchases between 2004 and 2005, the researcher surmises that Chinese clothing imports have not had a negative impact on the U.S. economy as far as U.S. consumer participation is concerned.

With respect to research question two, which asks, “Based on the data collected in response to research question one, what can the researcher reasonably forecast as the trajectory of the relationship between Chinese-U.S. clothing import/exports over the course of the next five years?,” the answer does seem to be somewhat more clear. Although the main focus of the researcher’s attention with respect to the quantitative data spanned the years 2004 and 2005, the references to data collected as far back as 1990 reveal trends that have been consistent for almost 20 years. The trend can be summarized as follows: The Chinese apparel industry has been a leading exporter of clothing and has contained—and even reduced—its imports in this area, while at the same time the U.S. has consistently decreased exports and increased imports. Given current conditions, this trend can be expected to continue for the next five years. Although the current trade agreement for apparel items between China and the United States expires in 2008, present indicators do not seem to support the argument that the expiration of the agreement will have a significant impact in terms of reversing the trend. If one considers that the manufacturing capacity of the United States, both in terms of physical plant and in job loss, has diminished in the past decade and a half with respect to clothing, even if Chinese imports decline, it is not likely that U.S. based production of clothing will resume, at least not at the level that it enjoyed in the past.

Chapter Five
Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions

The economic performance and stability of any country are determined by a number of different variables, originating both within the country and outside of it. The clothing sector is just one industry that contributes to the American economy, and though it is an important one, there are many others. While the participants in the focus group bemoaned the passage of the glory days of the American apparel industry, the fact of the matter is that the locus of economic production has been shifting in the United States for some time now. Having moved from an agrarian to an industrial economy in the 20th century, we are moving from an industrial economy to a technological one in this century. Although the consequences of the loss of manufacturing jobs are acute for workers in the clothing industry in the United States, other jobs are becoming available and the general unemployment rate in the country is low. Also, while some economic analysts are concerned about the United States’ ever-increasing dependence upon Chinese clothing imports, other analysts predict that China cannot possibly sustain its present trajectory because its rate of growth has increased too much and too quickly. Together, these factors may converge in such a way that they do not reverse the present trend identified in the previous chapter, but that they control the overall effect of any negative impacts that are experienced by the U.S. economy.

Recommendations
For those researchers and observers who are interested in the impact that the Chinese export ratio has on the U.S. economy, the researcher recommends continuing to monitor the three economic indicators that were included in this study, namely: import-export ratios, job loss, and consumer purchases. By examining these three indicators and their stability or fluidity over time, one can begin to develop a more informed perspective. The same sorts of indicators can be applied to a variety of other markets, and as China continues to assert its presence in other market and industry sectors, it will be both useful and important to track the effects of Chinese participation in world markets.

The researcher recommends that future researchers apply the theoretical and research design model that was used for this study in order to advance this body of knowledge and to develop an archive of information that will contribute to a better understanding of economic issues overall. The research design offered here is both flexible and portable, fully transferable to the study of other industries, and even other countries.

Finally, the researcher recommends that particular attention be paid to these three economic indicators in 2008, when the current trade agreement expires and new trade relationships and policies are negotiated. Although China has firm dominance in the apparel industry at present, and shows no signs of flagging, it is likely that the Chinese and American economies will both respond, if only minimally, to changes that are precipitated by the termination of the current trade agreement.